MLB Showdown Basics(by Michael, age 12)

MLB Showdown is a baseball card game that has existed for several years now. It takes the players you watch compete for playoff contention on TV and turns their stats into special baseball cards, called Showdown Cards.

The first thing you should do to start playing is buy a Starter Set. The Starter Set includes a game board, a 20-sided die, many cards, and two guaranteed Holographic Cards.

Next, you should buy some Booster Packs. There are three sets of cards that come out at different times of the year. They include the Base Set, Trading Deadline, and Pennant Run. The Base Set is based on players of the previous year, while Trading Deadline and Pennant Run are based on the players on their current teams as of the release date of the set. When you buy packs, you can buy normal Base Set Packs, Trading Deadline Packs, or Pennant Run Packs. New as of MLB Showdown 2004, you now get 8 cards per pack. One in every few packs, you may find the sixth card to be a holographic card. These cards are more likely to be better than the Non-Holographic Cards. Also, whether they're good or not, holographics will be worth more than non-holographics.

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How To Play

Before choosing your future World Champion lineup, you must learn how to play so you know which players will help your team and in what fields, or maybe they'll hurt your team.

Really, learn how to play BEFORE constructing your lineup, rotation, and bullpen. Players aren't always as they had seemed in real life.

So, the pitcher is on the mound, and the batter has stepped in to the batter's box. The person on the fielding team rolls the die. The number will be somewhere from 1-20. Look at the number. Now, look on your pitcher's card. Add the number rolled on the die to your pitcher's Control Number. Now, look to the batter's card, and look for his On Base Number. If the Control Number plus the roll of the die was greater than the batter's on base number, it is called the Pitcher's Advantage. If it was equal or less than the batter's on base number, then it is the Batter's Advantage. Disregarding whose advantage it was, the person on the batting team rolls the die. If it was the pitcher's advantage, look for the number on the pitcher's card. If it was the batter's advantage, look for the number on the batter's card.

If it is a Walk, advance the batter to first base and then look to see if there was already someone on first. If so, advance him one base. If there were runners on first and second, advance them both one base and put the batter on first. Same with the bases loaded. But if there was only a man on second, for example, he does not advance. Same with a man on third or second and third.

If it is a Single, advance the runner to first, and advance any runner already on base a base further.

If it says Single+, first, look to see if there is someone on first. If so, then act as if it was a single. If no one is on first base, then advance all baserunners two bases.

If it is a Double, advance all baserunners two bases.

If it was a Triple, advance all runners three bases.

If it was a Home Run, then all runners, including the batter, score.

If an FB is hit, then it is a fly ball. A runner on second base(with no one on third) may try to Tag Up(optional). Look at your outfielders. Add up their Fielding, which is +?. Then, subtract the Outfield's Fielding from the runner's speed, and add 1. Then, the fielding team rolls the die. If it is that number or higher, the runner has been thrown out. The same thing happens with a man on third. But when that man is tagging up from third, add five to his speed. You can tag up with two runners, but the defense can only attempt to throw the further runner out.

When a GB is hit, it advances runners not on first base. But if there is a runner on first base, a Double Play will be attempted(not optional). Subtract your Infield's Fielding from the runner's speed. Then, add 1. The fielding side then rolls the die. If it is that number or greater, then the double play is successful. If there was a runner on second and/or third(but not first), they advance 1 base unless the double play or grounder ended the inning.

If the result is PU or SO, then an out is added, but no runners may advance.

To attempt a Steal, first check to see where your runner's are. You can not steal home, and in order to steal second or third, the base you are stealing must be unoccupied. First, look at your catcher's fielding. Subtract this from the runner's speed, and add 1. Then, the fielding side rolls the die. If the result is equal to or greater than the number, then the runner was thrown out. If this ends an inning, a batter will start the next inning. If the rolled number was less than your result from the fielding and speed, then the base was successfully stolen. But if you were stealing third, then the catcher adds 5 to his fielding.

You can also attempt to take Extra Bases. So, on a hit, a runner(or two) may try to go an extra base(third or home). Subtract the outfield's fielding from the runner's speed and add 1. The defense needs this or higher to throw the runner out. But if the runner is going home, you add five to his speed. In addition, if the pitch came with two outs, add another five to his speed. Once again, the defense must try to throw out the furthest runner. But a runner may not advance from first to second as an extra base.

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Icons

In MLB Showdown, there are things called Icons, since 2003. They're these small circles with letters or numbers in them, near the fielding, speed, etc. These icons enhance their play in special ways. They get these icons from achieving things in real life, so not everyone has icons. There are icons for pitchers, batters, fielders, and baserunners. I'll explain them now.

Pitching Icons

20(20 game winner)-Some pitchers have this icon for winning 20 games in the season. This is an overrated icon, as you will see in future dates. I've created many formulas to show how good certain icons or players are, and I found this one is overrated. Anyway, this icon allows your pitcher to, once per inning, add 3 tohis control before a batter. This is useful for weakening a batter's strengths and give your pitcher a higher chance of advantage. Usually, it doesn't affect the outcome of the at bat, but it is a useful tool to have.

RP(Relief Pitcher)-This is an invaluable icon for the few relief pitchers who have it. Whether it helps you or not, it's never a bad thing to use a reliever with this icon. Never. This icon allows a reliever to add 3 to his control for 1 full inning in the 7th or later. This can be used to put down a team's best hitters or close a game out. If you get one, you'll want it if you play with icons. They're just hard to find.

CY(Cy Young)-This icon is awarded to people who won the Cy Young Award. I don't find this icon very addictive, but if your starter is better than all of your relievers, then this may come in handy. If your pitcher, at any point of the game, gets a 1-2-3 inning, he is allowed to pitch one extra inning. If a pitcher goes over his specified limit, he loses 1 in control for every extra inning he pitches. But with this icon, you can pitch an extra inning without this happening each time you get a 1-2-3 inning. So, if you pitched perfect through 5 innings and your pitcher is normally allowed 7 innings, he is now allowed 12! But don't overuse it if you have a good bullpen...

K(Strike Out)-By far the most valuable of the pitching icons. This icon will almost guarantee you to save a few runs a game. Once per game, your pitcher may turn any result into a strikeout. Use this on a Home Run, run scoring hit, or maybe you want to use it as the last out of the game.

Hitting Icons

S(Silver Slugger)-As I may talk about when explaining one of my formulas later on, you will find out that IF you use this icon wisely, it can be a big help. This icon is underratedif you use it well. This icon allows the batter to, once a game, turn a single or single+, into a double.

HR(Home Run)-Once a game, a batter may turn a double(not single+) or a triple into a home run.

V(MVP)-This is a slightly underrated yet not well understood icon. Twice per game, a batter may reroll an at bat. This can end up being the difference between a win and a loss. What people don't understand is that the value of the icon depends on how good the player is. The better the player, the better the icon. I may explain this further later during a formula I will explain.

Fielding Icons

G(Golden Glove)-This is not an important icon by any means, but although fielding matters, you shouldn't disregard it. Once in a while, you will use it. Once per game, a fielder may add 10 to his fielding. This may be when throwing a stealing runner out, throwing out a tagging up runner, or attempting a double play. You won't use this icon in most games even if you have several, but it's the small things that sometimes matter in baseball.

Baserunning Icons

SB

(Stolen Base)-This icon is a hard one. It's a useful icon, but you have to know where the strategic spots are when you should use it. This icon allows you to steal second or third base without a throw once per game.

Note: A player may only use an icon if he himself has that icon.

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Constructing Your Lineup

Once you know how to play, the first thing you will probably attempt is to create your Lineup. This is the lineup that will score you runs in the games you play, and you need a good lineup to win, even in this game. First of all, you need one of every position. If you play with National League Rules, then you will need all 9 positions, including the pitcher. If you are using American League Rules, then you will have someone be a permanent batter for the pitcher-the DH. The DH hits instead of the pitcher but does not play the field. He may bat anywhere in the lineup.

The first thing you should look at on the card of a batter is their On Base number. The higher the On Base number, the higher the chance of your batter getting the advantage. When you have the advantage, no matter whether you are the hitter of the pitcher, you have a higher chance of a positive outcome. So, a high On Base number is always good. Twelve is a good on base number. So is thirteen. Once in a while, you may get a fourteen, but don't count on it.

But there is more to a player than just his On Base number. He has stats with the advantage that are going to be different in some way than most other people. So, a thirteen in on base could be worse than a twelve in on base. Maybe the twelve in on base has a better chance of getting on base with the advantage, he hits more home runs, or he hits more extra base hits. All of these things matter. But when making your lineup, hitting isn't the only thing that matters. Your lineup will also determine how good your team is when it comes to fielding. This is also something to consider.

But then, there's one more aspect of your game that you should consider when constructing your lineup:speed. With a speedy lineup, you can steal bases, and advance runners. Maybe you want to follow these speedy guys by someone who has a high On Base number to drive them in.

But what if you aren't sure which hitter is better? What if you want to know how much better one is than another in on base average, average, singles, doubles, triples, HR's, or a combination of two or three of them? I've had this same problem. So, I came up with many mathematical formulas to help solve this problem and several other MLB Showdown problems I will explain later. Here is an example of the formula in its simplest form. This would be to find out the on base average of a 12 on base, 8-11 a walk, 16-18 double, 19+ Home Run against a 5 control pitcher, 18-19 a walk, 20 a single:

(65x.15+35x.65)/100
.325

This specific batter will have a .325 on base average against this specific pitcher. By the way, those x's are not variables. They're times signs. I couldn't get them any better.

Note: You shouldn't attempt this without a scientific calculator or it will be extremely complicated to get the right answer.

Now, I will explain the formula. First, you have to figure out the chance each the batter and the pitcher have of getting the advantage. To do this, subtract the pitcher's control number from the batter's on base number, then add 1. Then, multiply this number by 5. This is the pitcher's chance of advantage. Subtract this from 100 for the batter's chance of advantage(in percent form). Now, you have the chances of advantage. Now, you need to find the chance of the batter reaching base when it is the pitcher's advantage. To do this, find the first number on the pitcher's card in which a batter will reach base. Count how many numbers there are from it to 20, including itself and 20. Multiply this by 5, then divide by 100. Do the same for the batter's card. Now, you have all the necessary information for the formula. On your scientific calculator, type "open parenthesis", then put the "pitcher's chance of advantage", then "times", then the "chance of the batter reaching base with the pitcher's advantage(in decimal form)", then "plus", then the "batter's chance of advantage", then "times" then the "chance of the batter reaching base with his advantage(in decimal form)", then "closed parenthesis", then press "divided by", and then type "100". Press the equals button, and unless an error was made, this will give you the batter's on base average against that specific pitcher.

Note: If the pitcher has the K, 20, or RP icons, or the batter has the V icon, then the results will not be accurate. I will explain formulas for these later.

But what if you wanted to find a batter's batting average instead of on base average? There's a formula for that too. It's a little more complicated, but if you successfully went through the first one, you should be fine for this one.

Everything in the formula is done exactly the same except for the part where you had found the chance of the batter reaching base with someone's advantage. This part is changed a little. To find this for the pitcher's advantage, first count the number of walks he allows with the advantage. Then, subtract this from 20. Then, count how many base hits he allows with the advantage. Make this into a fraction or division problem, hits over the number you got when you subtracted the walks from 20. For the batter, first count how many walks he gets on his advantage(Advice: Really count on your fingers. If he has 7-11 walk, that is not 4 walks.). Subtract this from twenty. Then, count how many base hits he gets with the advantage. Make another division problem, hits over the difference between twenty and the number of walks. Now, you have two sets of division problems. Now, put parenthesis around each division problem. These will now replace the chance of a batter reaching base with someone's advantage from the last formula. Now, if I were using the same batter and pitcher as mentioned earlier but I was now calculating his average, then this would be the formula I would use.

(65x(1/18)+35x(9/16))/100
.232(9861111)

You may also want to find out the extra base hits, or maybe you specifically want to know doubles, triples, or home runs. This is the simplest when in a percent form, so you can see what percent of the time a batter will do something. Oh, by the way, this is per plate appearances, not at bats(at bats don't include walks). Do the exact same thing as said in the last formula, but when you had found out how many hits the batter gets with someone's advantage, you will now put the number of chances your batter has of doing what you're looking up. For example, if you want to find the percentage for all extra base hits and your batter has 16-18 double, and 19+ Home Run, then you would count from 16-20(5 numbers) and multiply this by 5, then divide this by 100. You'd put this in that spot we keep changing. This would be the formula to find the extra base hit percentage of that same batter against that same pitcher.

(65x0+35x.25)

8.75(%)

Notice that it says 0. This is because there are no extra base hits hit with the pitcher's advantage. When this happens, you can put 0.

So, you have now found out the percentage of extra base hits that batter hits.

Now that you know a few of the basic formulas to help you make your lineup, I'll put some guidelines up here for the actual construction.

1. Never disregard fielding. Fielding can save you runs if it's good enough. If you don't turn a double play, they have an extra baserunner an 1 less out. This can be a big difference.

2. Don't build your lineup truly on power or on base. You need both for a good team, so having a lot of one could fail you.

3. It is usually best to have a speedy leadoff man. In this game, it really doesn't matter that much, but if you single and then steal second, it's like you got a double. Then, maybe you steal third. Triple.

4. Make sure your lineup doesn't have too much speed. You probably wouldn't realize it, but when you overload on speed, some will go to waste while at the same time, you're taking away from the other things you need to have to win.

5. Have a well rounded lineup. This way, nothing like this scenario can happen: "You're batting in the ninth inning. Your big hitter is up fifth this inning. If you can get around to him, you'll have a good shot of regaining the run you lost. But wait-you have the end of your lineup up. And the end of it is weak. An average of 8.67 in on base. The chances are slim..." If you had a well rounded lineup, you would've had a shot of getting around to that big hitter.

6. If you're playing by AL rules, you may want to bat someone speedy ninth. That way, he's like a leadoff man at the end of your order. You can get him on base before you reach your stirdy top of the lineup.

7. Remember, on base is not everything. One out of twenty at bats, an 11 in on base will not get the advantage once when a twelve in on base would. That could be only twice a game. Make sure you don't go too crazy about getting high on base numbers. The bigger things like what happens with the advantage can also matter.

8. Your lineup may not always be the same-it can depend on the pitcher you're facing. If you're facing a pitcher with a low control, you may put in slightly lower on base batters who do better with hte advantage. If they put in a pitcher with high control, you may concentrate more on your on base numbers than before.

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Creating Your Starting Rotation

When making your Starting Rotation, you should not only consider high control numbers, but also the lower ones who do well with the advantage. As I have revealed through more complicated formulas I will explain later, I have surprisingly revealed that certain pitchers have been unexpectedly better than certain others. Pitchers in this game aren't always as they look, so be careful. Because you will have one person pitch many innings in a game, it's important that you choose the right pitchers. What you should first know is that you should completely avoid pitchers under a 4 in control unless you have no other option, and sometimes, you should even avoid 4's in control. This is because even if they're good with the advantage, they won't get it enough for this to be put to good use. The pitching icons for starters include CY, 20, and K. The K icon is the most important, for it's almost guaranteed to save you at least one run while your pitcher is pitching. Also, you may extend them past their limit if they haven't used it yet-it would protect them until they use it. So, for the most part, pitchers with the K icon will be somewhere in your rotation.

As I mentioned in the Icons section, the 20 icon is overrated. Maybe it has the chance to help you every inning, but it helps you about one every 6 innings. It's not as useful as you think, but
it's always a good backup.

Unless you have a very bad or very small bullpen, the CY icon isn't so amazing. If your starter is better than your relievers, though, then it can help extend your innings with a good pither in. Actually, I don't have anyone with this icon in my rotation, so I wouldn't tell you to.

Again, though, you may not be sure which pitcher is better than the other. Use the formulas in the "Constructing Your Lineup" section to determine this in a simple way, but use two different pitchers, not two different batters. But now, I'm going to teach you how to you can do these formulas with a pitcher with the 20 icon. This will increase your pitcher's chance of advantage. So, I'll teach you how to determine your pitcher's new chance of advantage, which you will replace the prior chance of advantage with. This is more complicated, but once you understand it, it'll be a big help.

First, we have to know that the 20 icon adds 3 to your control once per inning. First, figure out the normal chance of advantage for the pitcher. To do this, count how many numbers out of the 20 on the die will give your pitcher the advantage against a specific batter. Multiply this by 20. This is the percent form of the chance of advantage for the pitcher. Then, add 15 for the would-be chance of advantage for the pitcher if he were to use his 20 icon. Find the batter's on base average from this. Refer to "Constructing Your Lineup" for this information.

Now, find out what the batter's on base average would be against the pitcher's normal chance of advantage. It would take too long to explain this again, so refer to "Constructing Your Lineup" for the information. Be careful, there's a lot of room for error in these directions.

Now, you have the on base average for the pitcher's normal control and for his would-be control with the 20 icon being used.

First, look at the on base average for the batter against the pitcher using his 20 icon. Subtract this number(which should be in decimal form) from 1. Multiply this by 100. Now, Subtract this from 300. Keep note of this number. Now, look at the on base average of the batter against the normal control of the pitcher. If this is in decimal form, subtract it from 1. Now, again, multiply by 100. Remember that number you took note of? Divide it by the number you just got by multiplying by 100. Then, remember the pitcher's normal chance of advantage and multiply this by the number you just got. Take note of the number you just multiplied by the pitcher's normal chance of advantage. Now, add the pitcher's chance of advantage when he uses the 20 icon. Divide the number you currently have by the number you took note of with 1 added to it. This is you pitcher's chance of advantage.

Note: When you get numbers in the decimals and you have to use that number, use the entire number including all of the decimals you could find. Otherwise, this will be inaccurate.

Now, to find out the batter's on base average or his average, replace the numbers that show the advantage percent in the formulas of "Constructing Your Lineup" with the number you just found. But subtract your current number from 100 to find the batter's chance of advantage. You can do this for all the formulas so far.

Hopefully, you understand something I've said so far. If these formulas are done correctly, they will give you correct answers.

If there was a 12 on base, 8-11 walk, 12-15 single, 16-18 double, 19+ Home Run against a 5 control, 18-19 walk, 20 single, but the pitcher had the 20 icon, then this would be the final formula to find the on base average.

(68.65853659x.15+31.34146041x.65)/100

.306(7073021)

This can be essential to make tough decisions between 20 icon pitchers who are similar, yet different. You need a good rotation to win.

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Making Your Bullpen

Your Bullpen can be an essential part of catching up to a lead, maintaining one, or keeping the opposing team close when late in the game. You want your relievers and closers to be as good as possible to safely close out the game in the later innings.

First of all, any reliever who has the RP or CY icons is pretty much automatically a great pitcher. But these are tough to find.

When making your bullpen, check to see how long your starters last. Normally, they last 7 innings. If you have starters with mostly less than seven innings, you should have around 6-7 innings of relief in your bullpen. This is because games often go into extra innings when you need extra relievers. But if you have starters at least 7 innings and maybe some have the CY icon, you may only need 4-5 innings of relief. Sometimes, though, the most important decision in making your bullpen is deciding on your last reliever. These are the guys on the end of the line, who have to enter 13 inning(about) situations. You need this person to be as good as possible.

But another important decision is deciding on the order of your bullpen. When in a normal game, you have to decide who is better out of 2 relievers, and if you don't choose the right one, it may cost you. So, you can use the previously stated formulas to decide which pitcher is better out of two. If your pitcher has the RP icon, you usually use them for that one inning. If you have one of these and want to find out how good he is, use one of the previous formulas, but after you find out the pitcher's percent chance of advantage, add 15 to it. Then, subtract 15 from the batter's percent chance of advantage. If a reliever 5 control, 18-19 walk, 20 single with the RP icon faced a batter 12 on base, 8-11 walk, 12-15 single, 16-18 a double, 19+ a home run, this would be the formula to find the batter's on base average against that pitcher.

(80x.15+20x.65)/100

.250

Soon, I'm going to start working on a formula to figure out how many innings a pitcher will pitch with the CY icon on his exact average start. I haven't started yet, I'm doing a related S icon formula.

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Tournament Play

This game has now become popular enough that there are organized Tournaments to play in. You usually bring your team to a card store or other place, you pay a small fee, then you play others in the tournament. This sounds great, right? You get to competitively play against people you may not even know. If you come in first place, you often win a pack or a few. But most tournaments have a catch. A nasty one. To stop people from coming in with completely perfect teams and completely destroying the place, they often set a Point Limit.

A point limit stops you from bringing just anyone to the tournament with you. It gives you a limit of Points you can not exceed in order to play in the tournament. You can find the points of a player next to all of his other stats. The more points he is, the more he as a card has been valued by the creators of the game. But sometimes, someone will be better than someone worth more points than him. Often, the limit will be around 6000. This sets you tight. If you have 9 position players, 2 bench players, 4 starters, and 2 relievers, then that's an average of 352.94117 points per person. I prefer to bring only one reliever who you could stretch for 3 innings, and no bench players. The less players you have, the better each of your players can be. Creating your Tournament Team can therefore be a long, grueling process.

I'll explain useful "strategies" for forming your tournament team. Start by laying out your normal team, and add up the total points of it. Then, subtract the point limit from it. This will give you the amount of points you have to eliminate from your team. Write this down for later reference. Or memorize it.

Then, start by finding other good players for positions of your choice that are less points than your normal player. Maybe you want to leave your best player in, but you'll have to be worse in your other positions. Then, there's pitching. In my opinion, you should try to keep your starters at full strength, and keep your bullpen down to 3-4 innings of work when stretching your relievers. I think that if you have good pitchers, your opponent can't win(unless they have a great lineup). If they can't score, they can't win.

So, now, calculate the points your starting rotation and bullpen use up(a few changes may have been made). Subtract this from the point limit to find how many points you have for your lineup(I suggest you don't bring a bench). Divide this by nine to find the average points per player. Now, you come in. You can choose a well rounded lineup, in which players will not specialize recklessly in one portion of the game. Or, you can take a risk. You can also get 4 or 5 of the best players you can find, while the rest of your lineup is as bad as you can find(their points may be 10-100 if you're really desperate on points). This needs luck to work. If the top of your lineup happens to be up during key situations, you may succeed. Otherwise, you'll become lost in a blur of frustration.

But I suggest that you construct both teams. That way, you can find average stats such as average, on base average, extra base hits percentage, and all those things. To do this, use previous formulas to find a specific stat for each of the players. Add the answers up, and divide by the number of players. Compare the lineups. Most likely, one will be better in one aspect while the other will be better in the other.

As a tip, try and use every single point you are given. Even if it's replacing a 20 point person with a 30 point person, it's worth it. It may seem impossible, but if you spend a few hours searching through your cards, you will eventually succeed.

Honestly, I use the risky choice, where I go for it in the top of my lineup, and then the bottom doesn't have anyone even 100 points in it. But I personally feel safe with my great pitching and great/terrible lineup. Do you?

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The V Icon

The V icon is a powerful and important icon in MLB Showdown. Any player with the V icon is an amazing player. As you know, it allows you to reroll an at bat twice a game. This, although the concept is easy to grasp, is not understood by many in its actual value. I was one of these people, until I made a formula to find how much it affects a player. First, you must choose a standard pitcher. Oh, this formula is assuming you use the V icon 2x a game, and not less. It's impossible to find out what percent of the time you'll use it once or 0 times. Anyway, the first thing you must do is find the batter's normal on base average against the pitcher. Refer to previous formulas for this. Then, you have to figure out how many plate appearances he would get against this pitcher in a game if he were to fill ALL NINE spots of the lineup himself. To do this, take the on base average, subtract it from 1, and then divide this into 27. Then, divide this by nine. Multiply this number by his on base average(in decimal form) and subtract this from the number you got after dividing by nine. This is a checkpoint. At this point, you should have 3 as your answer. If not, you did something wrong. Anyway, you've now found out how many plate appearances he would have against a standard pitcher in a game. Now, double the on base average(in decimal form). Add this to the hits per game per person(plate appearances per game minus 3), and you now have the amount of hits per game he gets with the V icon. Add three to this to find the new amount of plate appearances per game. To find the on base average, divide the newly found hits by the newly found plate appearances. Using everything here and in the other formulas, you should be able to follow these instructions to find average with the V icon, and with some perseverance and a lot of thought, you may be able to find other things like doubles and home runs if you really try. Here's an example of the formula that would show how a 12 on base, 8-11 walk, 12-15 single, 16-18 double, 19+ home run, with the V icon would do against a pitcher 5 in control, 18-19 walk, 20 single. This is too long to explain the whole formula, but it's basically what you did put into one big mathematical equation. And this is the entire thing, so some parts may seem partially unfamiliar to you... As you can see from the formula below, this batter's on base average is .4111232279. With a normal on base average of .325, this V icon helps a lot.

((2(65x.15+35x.65)/100)+((((27/(1-((65x.15+35x.65)/100)))/9)x(65x.15+35x.65))/100))/((((27/(1-((65x.15+35x.65)/100))))/9)-((27/(1-((65x.15+35x.65)/100)))/9)x((65x.15+35x.65)/100)+(2((65x.15+35x.65)/100))+(((27/(1-((65x.15+35x.65)/100)))/9)x

(65x.15+35x.65)/100)

.411(1232279)

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The CY Icon

The CY icon is a strange icon, as I discovered. Because I was able to create a formula for the V icon, I assumed I could for this-they have similar results. But what I didnn't realize was that this is an icon that can be used indefinitely on. There is no limit to how many times you can use it, unlike the V icon. So, there isn't a possible way to create a perfectly accurate formula for this. But, I will give you a formula, and tell you how to make it more accurate on your own. But it will never become perfect.

Anyway, to start, pick a batter to use as a standard against your pitcher. Then, find his on base average with the first formula of te blog. Subtract this from 1. Write this number down. Then, multiply this by 100. Multiply your current number by the one you wrote down. Then, multiply the number you have now by the number you wrote down. Multiply this by your pitcher's innings pitcher number. This number is how many extra innings he will pitch because of the CY Icon. But as I said, this isn't a completely accurate formula. Why? During the innings he pitches after the normal amount, he will have a chance of earning more innings. Then, during those, he'll have the chance again. This is a cycle that goes on infinitely. Your calculator may eventually read zero, but that's just because the numbers were too small for it. Anyway, maybe you do want to get it a little more accurate. Once you've done all the math so far, take the batter's on base average, subtract it from 1, multiply by 100, multiply this by the decimal form of this number, then do it again(what we did before). Multiply by the number of inings he pitches. Now, take the number you multiplied by the innings pitched and now multiply it by the extra innings pitched. Do the same thing to this number. The numbers keep on getting smaller, but never end. Once you're satisfied, add these numbers up, starting with the original number of extra innings he can pitch. Adding them all together gives you the total number of extra innings he can pitch. Add this to his normal innings pitched for his total number of pitching innings. Remember, this process will never be 100% accurate, so you have to decide where to stop. The farther you go on, the less it counts. Now, I'll demonstrate the formula but only do the first step of finding the amount of extra innings he pitches. You, of course, can do this step more than once. This is between a 5 control, 18-19 walk, 20 single pitcher with the CY Icon who pitches 7 innings against a batter 12 on base, 8-11 walk, 12-15 single, 16-18 double, 19+ home run.

(7((100(1-((65x.15+35x.65)/100)))x(1- ((65x.15+35x.65)/100))x
(1-((65x.15+35x.65)/100))))/100

2.152828125

So, at this point of the formula, I could've gone on by multiplying my answer by the entire repetitive part that starts with the first "(1-((65x.15+..." and ends at the very end. Then, I would add my current answer to the one I got here. Then, I might do it again. But that part wasn't demonstrated since it can potentially go on forever.

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Linked Events

Sometimes in MLB Showdown, you may be in tight situations in which you're narrowly escaping loss and need a few more hits to stay alive. But you also have a bench. Your bench has good people for extra base hits, so you could score quickly. But your lineup has a higher chance of getting on base. Which has a higher chance of succeeding if you have two outs? Let's make a situation.

This is complicated. You need one run to tie in the bottom of the ninth inning with two outs and a man on second. You need 2 singles, a double, 3 walks, a triple, or a home run to score(or a combination of walks and singles). The batter coming up specializes in singles and walks-he's a 13 on base with 6 a walk. Same with the batter after him. But will they each come through to hopefully score a run? We don't know. You look to your bench. Your bench is more of a power team. They have less of a chance of getting on base, but they could more easily tie it up with one swing. This sounds like opinion on whether to leave your normal lineup in or Pinch Hit, but really, it's all mathematical. You can find the chances of different chains or Linked Events.

Linked events are two or more events happening sequentially. We can find the chances of certain linked events with the same result and compare the chances of each. Even a small difference helps, so you don't want to make the wrong choice.

First, you may want to make a basic decision: Is a bench player or your batter better at doubles? Multiply the percent chance of pitcher's advantage by chance of the chosen outcome with his advantage(decimal form), and add that to the same thing but for the batter's advantage. This is the chance of that extra base hit that will tie the game up. Do this again for a chosen bench player. Compare the numbers. The higher one is better. But is this too risky for you? Would you rather just try to get on base? Do the same thing as before but replace extra base hits numbers with walks/singles numbers. Do it for the bench player too. But wait-you're not done. You found the first one, but that doesn't score the runner yet. Multiply your current numbers by themself and divide by 100. That is, if you needed only two singles or walks to score that runner. If you did it by walks, you might have to do it a third time. This, if done correctly, should give you the percent chance of this chain of events coming true and scoring a run in that specific way. Compare the bench and lineup players, and see which has a better chance. This is getting complicated, isn't it? Now, you are free to compare other things, such as this chance to the chance of getting an extra base hit to score(if it was a different person you used). To clear things up, I'll demonstrate it in a formula. It may look a little different, but don't be alarmed. This will demonstrate the chance of linked events for a 12 on base, 8-11 walk, 12-15 single, 16-18 double, 19+ home run to get a single followed by two walks against a 5 control, 18-19 walk, 20 single pitcher.

(65x.05+35x.2)x(65x.1+35x.2)x(65x.1+35x.2)/100
18.680625(%)

So, there is an 18.680625% chance of this sequence of events in order to score a run. Now, let's put a different player in to bat. You already know he doesn't get on base as much, but think he may have a good enough chance of an extra base hit to score a run. He's an 11 on base, 7-9 a walk, 12-14 a single, 15-18 a double, 19+ a home run(against the same pitcher). Maybe he has over an 18.680625% chance of an extra base hit, which would score that man from second(and only takes one at bat). Let's figure it out.

30x.3+70x0
9(%)

Nope. His extra base hits weren't great enough so he'd have a good enough chance. But some minor differences would have made him good enough, such as the pitcher having 20 as a double(quite common) or his on base being higher than 11(11 isn't great).

But there's a flip side to this, too. Maybe you're pitching and you're thinking about bringing in a reliever. Use the same formulas, but there's one big difference. You may need to find out the chance of an out. To do this, find the chance (decimal) of getting on base, and subtract from one. This gives you that number for chance of outs with someone's advantage.

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